One way or the other..

If democracy hasn't become an ideal more Utopian than ever, determined more by mercenary considerations and/or the richest, therefore most powerful lobbyists, rather than by its essential principles and values, this wave of Arabian enthusiasm for freedom should produce some interesting results.

Paradoxically, with free world opinion, the Iranian regime, the Hezbollah and the Palestinians of Gaza also congratulate the Egyptians on their 'victory'. The Iranian regime would be far less inclined to congratulate its own people who no doubt have similar aspirations, in the unlikely event that they too ever managed to gain such a victory to establish their own 'real democracy'.

Islamic radicalism cannot possibly be considered compatible with democracy, principles of which are also founded on religious tolerance. This is why what is taking place across Muslim North Africa, if not elsewhere, is such a determining factor. If the results are 'democratically positive', let's say by European standards, it would be reasonable to believe that it could solve what seems to be a growing, Islamic, identity problem.

This would have an enormous impact generally and could even thwart whatever bellicose program was being fostered by the Iranian regime seemingly set on systematically aggravating division wherever possible to gain political foot-holds in order to pursue it. Needless to add, such goals have little to do with peace, stability and democracy.

Historically and geographically, Egypt is perfectly representative and situated to be the herald of Arabian democracy, and the results, one way or the other, are going to effect the whole world and its future stability, one way or the other..


Text by Mirino. Images AP, with grateful thanks. February, 2011

1 comment:

Mirino said...

Naturally the future choice Egypt, assuming there will be a choice, will be very determining.

Mubarak seemed to be far more aware of the dangers of a transition of power than perhaps Obama ever was. Obama seemed over zealous in pushing the Egyptian President to resign too quickly. One is also inclined to believe that the US President was more prone to take advantage of the populist aspect of the situation, than to ponder sufficiently on the far more significant and critical geopolitical aspect.

Was it not incorrect and unstatesmanly of Obama to make a declaration alluding directly to Mubarak's forthcoming decision to resign, before Mubarak himself had confirmed any decision and made any declaration? Had Mubarak not fallen ill, apparently in a coma, it's probable that he would have continued in order to oversee the transition as he categorically confirmed was his intention.

Ironically, and tragically for him, it seems to be this turn of events that also saved the face of Obama. The future of the ME however, still rests very uncertain.